With global energy markets fluctuating and local economic pressures mounting, all eyes are now on the petrol price forecast August 2025 for South African motorists. As we enter the final stretch of winter, fuel prices remain a critical concern, influencing everything from transport costs to household budgets. This month’s projections consider several variables, including the international crude market, the Rand/USD exchange rate, and domestic policy factors like the fuel levy.
Both petrol and diesel price changes will significantly affect consumers and businesses alike. With increased transportation and logistics activity during this season, many are eager to know what to expect at the pump this August.
What’s Influencing Petrol and Diesel Prices in August 2025?
The petrol price forecast August 2025 is being shaped by multiple global and domestic economic factors. The most immediate is the recovery of international oil markets after July’s supply constraints. Brent crude oil prices have stabilized, but the potential for another surge remains due to geopolitical tensions in oil-exporting nations.
Domestically, three key influencers are affecting prices:
-
The volatile Rand/USD exchange rate, which saw a 3% depreciation in mid-July
-
Adjustments in the fuel levy announced in the national budget
-
Higher global demand for diesel due to shipping and agricultural operations
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) updates fuel prices monthly based on these inputs.
Petrol vs. Diesel Price Trends for August
In August 2025, the petrol price forecast August 2025 indicates a slight increase of between 15 to 25 cents per litre, driven largely by exchange rate weakness. Meanwhile, the diesel price is expected to rise more sharply—between 30 and 45 cents—due to surging global demand and shipping fuel needs.
Below is a comparison of price movements:
| Fuel Type | July 2025 (R/Litre) | Forecast August 2025 (R/Litre) | Expected Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R22.10 | R22.30 – R22.35 | +20 to +25 cents |
| Petrol 95 | R22.40 | R22.55 – R22.60 | +15 to +20 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% | R20.95 | R21.30 – R21.40 | +35 to +45 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% | R21.10 | R21.40 – R21.50 | +30 to +40 cents |
The broader spread in diesel price movement is reflective of high volatility in international distillate fuel markets, particularly in Europe and Asia.
Impact of the Rand/USD Exchange Rate
One of the biggest pressures on the petrol price forecast August 2025 is the declining Rand/USD rate. In July, the Rand lost ground against the dollar, dropping from R17.85 to R18.35, impacting fuel import costs. Because South Africa imports most of its refined fuel, a weaker currency directly raises pump prices, even when global oil prices remain steady.
If the Rand stabilizes in the coming weeks, price hikes could be softer in September. However, continued weakness will only worsen the fuel price burden for motorists and businesses.
Role of the Fuel Levy in August Price Setting
While there were no new hikes in the fuel levy this month, its existing structure continues to weigh on pump prices. Currently, nearly R6 per litre of fuel goes toward taxes, including the fuel levy and the Road Accident Fund (RAF) levy. That’s almost 25% of the total cost paid by consumers.
For August 2025, the unchanged fuel levy has at least prevented a steeper increase, though experts warn this relief may be short-lived if inflation persists.
Key factors influenced by the levy:
-
Petrol and diesel parity gaps
-
Provincial retail margins
-
VAT collection on fuel purchases
Even a small fuel levy adjustment in future months could lead to substantial downstream inflation.
Conclusion
The petrol price forecast August 2025 shows a moderate increase in both petrol and diesel price, largely driven by a weaker Rand/USD and seasonal global oil demand. While the fuel levy hasn’t changed this month, it continues to be a major component of fuel pricing. For motorists and logistics operators, now is a crucial time to plan fuel usage strategically and stay updated with official pricing announcements.
Fuel prices are set to remain a dynamic variable in the cost-of-living equation. Awareness and adaptability will be essential for both private individuals and commercial sectors during this period of economic pressure.
FAQs
How much will petrol prices increase in August 2025?
The petrol price forecast August 2025 suggests an increase of between 15 to 25 cents per litre, depending on fuel type and region.
Why is diesel more expensive this month?
The diesel price is climbing due to increased global demand for transportation and heating fuel, along with shipping sector demand spikes.
What role does the Rand/USD rate play?
The Rand/USD exchange rate directly affects the cost of fuel imports. A weaker Rand leads to more expensive petrol and diesel locally.
Will the fuel levy change this month?
No, there’s no adjustment to the fuel levy for August 2025, but it still makes up a significant portion of the final fuel price.
Can fuel prices go down in September?
Yes, if the Rand/USD strengthens and international oil prices remain stable, there could be minor reductions next month.
click here to learn more